宜州市土地利用与覆被变化及其驱动力分析
摘要
土地利用与土地覆被变化(land use and land cover change,简称LUCC)是全球环境变化的重要组成部分和造成全球环境变化的重要原因之一,而土地利用与土地覆被变化是目前全球变化研究的核心主题之一。在LUCC机制研究中,驱动力问题一直占据着主导地位。十几年来,宜州市政治、社会、经济均发生巨大变化,宜州市国民经济快速、稳定、健康发展,区域经济发展、开发区的建设驱动着该地区土地利用结构的变化,造成了耕地锐减、宜农后备土地资源日益减少等问题。研究宜州市1996年——2005年土地利用与土地覆被变化在社会经济发展导向下的数量结构和空间变化趋势,有利于为土地利用和土地覆被变化生态和资源效应预测,以及土地资源合理利用和优化配置提供科学依据。
在土地利用与土地覆被变化的基础上,对其进行驱动力分析。结果显示,人均全年可支配收入、农村居民人均居住面积、总人口数、农业人口数、农林牧渔业总产值、GDP、第三产业总产值、固定资产投入在土地利用与土地覆被变化为第一主成分,这几个因素主要表现为经济和人口因素,因此可以概括为经济人口因子;粮食总产量反映了土地生产力及农业发展情况,概括为土地生产力因子。
在土地利用与土地覆被变化的基础上,对其的经济人口和土地生产驱动力进行分析。本研究采用主成分分析对土地利用变化的驱动因素进行了分析。分析结果表明:从2004年到2010年,经济驱动力中以人均可支配收入为主要驱动力。
最后,在土地利用与土地覆被变化及驱动力分析的基础上,对土地利用潜力进行了分析,提出了相关的整改意见。
关键词:土地利用与覆被变化;经济驱动力;宜州市
A Study on Regional LUCC and Its Driving Force: Taking Yizhou City as an Example
ZhangJun
(College of Agriculture,Guangxi University,Nanning China, 530004)
Abstract:Land use and land cover change (LUCC) is an important component of global environmental change and an important factor that results in global environmental changes. therefore, LUCC is one of the core themes among the global change researches. In the research of LUCC mechanisms,the topic of driving force has been occupying the leading place. Over the past decade,great changes have taken place in Yizhou, covering the political,social and economic aspects. The national economy here is on the route of fast, stable and healthy development. The regional development pushes more construction of development zones, thus promoting changes in land use structure in the region and bringing about such problems as plow land declining,fewer spare land resources suitable for agriculture and so on. The study on the LUCC structure and spatial changing trends in Yizhou (hilly regions) from 1996 to 2005 year, guided by the social and economic development, contributes to provide basic data for the prognosis of ecological resources effects in LUCC, and the rational use and optimal allocation of land resources.
Based on the study of LUCC, this paper analyzes the driving force. And the result shows that such factors are the first main component of LUCC as the per capita disposable income, the per capita living space rural residents, the total population, the number of agricultural population, the total output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing, GDP, the total output of tertiary industry, the fixed asset investment. All theses factors are regarded as the economic factors and demographic factors, thus generalized as Eco-demographic Factor. The total output of grain reflects the conditions of land productivity and agricultural development, generalized as Land Productive Factor.
Meanwhile, also based on the study of LUCC, this paper analyzes the eco-demographic and land productive driving force. The method of principal component analysis is employed in this study to analyze the driving factors of land use change.The result indicates that the per capita disposable income is the main factor among the economic driving forces from the year 2004 to 2010.
In the last part, based on the study of LUCC and the analysis results of LUCC driving forces, the paper analyzes the land utilization potential and puts forward some relevant correction proposal.
Keywords:Land Use and Land Cover Change;economicdriving-force;Yizhou
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